Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market line of +33.5 for FDU versus the model’s projected spread of 23.7 creates a raw edge of 9.82 points, making the line the most compelling factor in this contest. The model assigns a spread edge of 9.8, reinforcing that the bookmakers have left substantial value on the table for the visitors.
From the shooting perspective, Oklahoma posts a three‑point percentage of 30.097 and a field‑goal percentage of 43.889, while FDU trails at 24.299 from deep and 40.984 overall. The disparity in long‑range efficiency and overall shooting underscores the home team’s advantage in offensive execution.
Defensively, the Sooners average 65.667 points allowed while scoring 76.333 points per game, yielding a margin of 10.667. In contrast, FDU concedes 87.75 points and scores 70.75, for a negative margin of ‑17.0 and a gap of 27.667 points between the squads. The differential highlights Oklahoma’s stronger two‑way performance and the expected dominance over the Knights.
The pick is FDU +33.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | +508022 | +31.5 | O 147.5 |
| OU Oklahoma Sooners | -508022 | -31.5 | U 147.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | +534 | +23.7 | O 147.1 |
| OU Oklahoma Sooners | -534 | -23.7 | U 147.1 |
Our Picks
Play to +24.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+149.50): This factor contributes +149.50 to the projection, favoring Oklahoma.
- Combined Tempo (+75.12): This factor contributes +75.12 to the projection, favoring Oklahoma.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+27.67): Oklahoma's scoring margin advantage of 27.67 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+27.00): This factor contributes +27.00 to the projection, favoring Oklahoma.
Recent Trends
Oklahoma Trends:
- Oklahoma Sooners is 35-1 straight up vs teams below .500
- Oklahoma Sooners is 10-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Oklahoma Sooners is 39-8 straight up after a win
- Oklahoma Sooners is 18-3 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Oklahoma Sooners is 10-1 straight up favorite
FDU Trends:
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 5-22 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 10-49 straight up in non-conference games
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 3-15 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 7-30 straight up vs teams above .500
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 3-15 straight up underdog
Matchup Edges
Oklahoma
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-1) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 76.3 PPG
- 5-day rest advantage over opponent's 3 days
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 70.8 PPG offense exceeds home defense (65.7 PPG) by 5.1
- Model sees 9.8-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 65.7 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
FDU
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -22.08 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -17.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 16%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 87.8 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Road win rate of only 29% away from home