Chattanooga Mocs vs Elon Phoenix
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The stark ATS trend for Chattanooga—1-13 straight up after a loss versus a winning opponent—dominates the narrative. The Mocs sit at a 1-13 record, a win percentage of 0.071 over a sample size of 14, underscoring how rarely they cover when the odds are unfavorable.
Elon’s shooting profile offers a modest edge. The Phoenix convert 32.0 % of their three‑point attempts while the Mocs shoot 34.286 % from beyond the arc. From the field, Elon hits 43.275 % overall compared with Chattanooga’s 46.667 % clip, indicating a slight efficiency gap that favors the home side in the paint.
The market line sits at –2.5 for Elon, yet the model projects a far larger –6.0 spread, generating an edge of –3.5. The market‑versus‑model signal flags a “play” for the home team, confirming the advantage implied by the deeper model rating and the underlying ATS weakness of the visitors.
Elon is the pick at –2.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Chattanooga Mocs | +130 | +2.5 | O 151.5 |
| ELON Elon Phoenix | -155 | -2.5 | U 151.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Chattanooga Mocs | +189 | +6 | O 156 |
| ELON Elon Phoenix | -189 | -6 | U 156 |
Our Picks
Play to -6.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+151.50): This factor contributes +151.50 to the projection, favoring Elon.
- Combined Tempo (+76.75): This factor contributes +76.75 to the projection, favoring Elon.
- Pace Mismatch (-31.67): A 31.67-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Chattanooga's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (-17.33): Chattanooga's per-game scoring advantage (17.33 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
Elon Trends:
- Elon Phoenix is 1-5 ATS at home after a loss
- Elon Phoenix is 1-5 ATS after a loss
- Elon Phoenix is 2-7 ATS at home as a favorite
- The over is 1-5 in Elon Phoenix's games underdog
- Elon Phoenix is 4-11 ATS home
Chattanooga Trends:
- Chattanooga Mocs is 1-13 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Chattanooga Mocs is 9-2 ATS on the road as an underdog
- Chattanooga Mocs is 5-1 ATS on the road after a win
- Chattanooga Mocs is 9-2 ATS underdog
- Chattanooga Mocs is 6-1 ATS in non-conference games
Matchup Edges
Elon
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (1-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +151.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Poor home record at just 33% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 86.7 PPG offense exceeds home defense (68.3 PPG) by 18.3
- Allowing 68.3 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Chattanooga
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 86.7 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -31.67 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +4.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (1-0) record (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 82.7 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 14.3 per game, amplified in road environments