Champion Christian Tigers vs UT Martin Skyhawks
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting advantage for UT Martin is the single most important angle in this contest. UT Martin is posting a 48.087 field‑goal percentage and a 37.037 three‑point clip, while Champion Christian manages only 37.5 from the floor and 23.529 from beyond the arc. That disparity in efficiency gives the home side a clear offensive edge heading into the Elam Center.
Champion Christian’s ATS record offers a stark counterpoint. The Tigers are 0‑33 straight up away, a win‑percentage of 0.0 across a 33‑game sample, underscoring a chronic inability to close out games on the road. The sheer volume of losses suggests that any bet against the Tigers would be fighting against a deep‑seated trend.
Rest differentials further tilt the balance toward UT Martin. The home squad arrives with four days of rest, whereas Champion Christian enjoys ten days off. Neither team is in back‑to‑back mode, but the disparity in layoff length could affect rhythm, favoring the side that has been playing more recently.
No line is offered and no side is taken; the model’s strength is pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
Market odds not available from ESPN for this game.
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHCC Champion Christian Tigers | -185 | -3.6 | O 139.7 |
| UTM UT Martin Skyhawks | +185 | +3.6 | U 139.7 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+139.67): This factor contributes +139.67 to the projection, favoring UT Martin.
- Pace Mismatch (+109.67): A 109.67-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with UT Martin's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (+80.00): The defensive scoring differential (80.00 PPG) favors UT Martin, who allows fewer points per game.
- Combined Tempo (+54.92): This factor contributes +54.92 to the projection, favoring UT Martin.
Recent Trends
UT Martin Trends:
- The over is 1-12 in UT Martin Skyhawks's games at home as a favorite
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 45-10 straight up vs teams below .500
- The over is 0-11 in UT Martin Skyhawks's games after a win
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 23-4 straight up in non-conference games
- The over is 1-12 in UT Martin Skyhawks's games home
Champ Chrstn Trends:
- Champion Christian Tigers is 0-33 straight up away
- Champion Christian Tigers is 0-33 straight up in non-conference games
- Champion Christian Tigers is 0-32 straight up after a loss
- Champion Christian Tigers is 0-30 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Champion Christian Tigers is 0-28 straight up with 2+ days rest
Head-to-Head:
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 4-0 straight up at home vs Champion Christian Tigers
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 4-0 straight up vs Champion Christian Tigers
Matchup Edges
UT Martin
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 84.7 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +139.67 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (0-0) (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 80.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 17.3 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
Champ Chrstn
Advantages
- 10-day rest advantage over opponent's 4 days
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -50.33 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +55.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Anemic offense at just 55.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 15.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- 10-game losing streak compounds road challenges