Pennsylvania Quakers vs Navy Midshipmen
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the massive spread discrepancy between the market and the model. The market has Navy listed as a 7.5‑point favorite, yet the model assigns a spread of –11.7, implying an edge of –19.18 points for the Midshipmen. That gap makes the line look dramatically soft, and the signal’s strength is a clear “play” for the home side.
Pennsylvania’s recent ATS track record is dismal. The Quakers sit at 2‑21 straight up after a loss to a winning opponent, a win‑percentage of .087 over a sample of 23 games. Such a poor straight‑up record suggests they have struggled to stay competitive, let alone cover a spread.
On the offensive side, Navy’s shooting is modest but efficient enough to matter. The Midshipmen are hitting 30.769 % from three and 38.068 % overall from the field, while Penn is slightly better from deep at 33.898 % but trails in overall field‑goal accuracy at 35.664 %. The slight edge in efficiency combined with the spread mismatch tips the balance toward the home team.
The pick is Navy +7.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENN Pennsylvania Quakers | -375 | -7.5 | O 146.5 |
| NAVY Navy Midshipmen | +295 | +7.5 | U 146.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENN Pennsylvania Quakers | +447 | +11.7 | O 143 |
| NAVY Navy Midshipmen | -447 | -11.7 | U 143 |
Our Picks
Play to -12.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+146.50): This factor contributes +146.50 to the projection, favoring Navy.
- Combined Tempo (+74.29): This factor contributes +74.29 to the projection, favoring Navy.
- Pace Mismatch (-27.83): A 27.83-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Penn's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (-22.83): The defensive scoring differential (22.83 PPG) favors Penn, who allows fewer points per game.
Recent Trends
Navy Trends:
- Navy Midshipmen is 13-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Navy Midshipmen is 13-1 straight up favorite
- Navy Midshipmen is 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games
- Navy Midshipmen is 9-2 ATS in conference games
- The over is 0-5 in Navy Midshipmen's games in non-conference games
Penn Trends:
- Pennsylvania Quakers is 2-21 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Pennsylvania Quakers is 8-36 straight up vs teams above .500
- Pennsylvania Quakers is 8-2 ATS on the road after a win
- Pennsylvania Quakers is 8-1 ATS in conference games
- Pennsylvania Quakers is 0-7 straight up vs ranked opponents
Matchup Edges
Navy
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Home record of 83% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 65.7 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +146.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 15.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Opponent's 74.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (65.7 PPG) by 8.3
- Allowing 65.7 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Penn
Advantages
- Pace Mismatch contributes -27.83 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -14.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 18%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 88.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Model win probability of just 18% on the road