Incarnate Word Cardinals vs UC Davis Aggies
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The scoring‑margin gap is the decisive factor, with UC Davis posting a 4.5‑point net margin while Incarnate Word languishes at –20.667, creating a 25.167 spread advantage for the home side. Davis averages 70.0 points per game and concedes 65.5, whereas the Cardinals manage only 58.0 points and yield 78.667 to opponents, underscoring the stark disparity on both ends of the floor.
The market line sits at –11.5, yet the model projects a –17.7 spread, delivering an edge of –6.18 in Davis’s favor. That differential signals that the bookmakers have left value on the table, and the –11.5 line should be attractive given the sharper –17.7 projection. The home team’s win probability of 0.902 further validates the oversized spread.
Incarnate Word’s ATS history compounds the concern: the Cardinals sit at 5‑30 straight‑up versus any opponent above .500, a win percentage of .143 across a sample of 35 games. Such a dismal record against quality competition suggests they will struggle to stay within even a modest margin, let alone the double‑digit gap implied by the spread.
The pick is UC Davis –11.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIW Incarnate Word Cardinals | +600 | +11.5 | O 145.5 |
| UCD UC Davis Aggies | -900 | -11.5 | U 145.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIW Incarnate Word Cardinals | +917 | +17.7 | O 128 |
| UCD UC Davis Aggies | -917 | -17.7 | U 128 |
Our Picks
Play to -18.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+145.50): This factor contributes +145.50 to the projection, favoring UC Davis.
- Combined Tempo (+68.04): This factor contributes +68.04 to the projection, favoring UC Davis.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+25.17): UC Davis's scoring margin advantage of 25.17 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+24.33): This factor contributes +24.33 to the projection, favoring UC Davis.
Recent Trends
UC Davis Trends:
- The over is 8-1 in UC Davis Aggies's games with 3+ days rest
- UC Davis Aggies is 29-13 straight up at home after a loss
- The over is 5-1 in UC Davis Aggies's games underdog
- UC Davis Aggies is 30-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- UC Davis Aggies is 29-13 straight up after a loss
Incarnate Word Trends:
- Incarnate Word Cardinals is 6-28 straight up on the road after a win
- Incarnate Word Cardinals is 8-46 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Incarnate Word Cardinals is 3-16 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Incarnate Word Cardinals is 5-30 straight up vs teams above .500
- Incarnate Word Cardinals is 5-26 straight up in non-conference games
Matchup Edges
UC Davis
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- 6-day rest advantage over opponent's 3 days
- Elite defense allowing just 65.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +145.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 15.5 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Allowing 65.5 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 10% model win probability
Incarnate Word
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -13.17 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -20.7 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 10%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-3 (0-1) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 78.7 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 58.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 18.3 per game, amplified in road environments