Dartmouth Big Green vs UAlbany Great Danes
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the shooting profile, where Dartmouth outshoots UAlbany from both the field and beyond the arc.
UAlbany’s three‑point clip sits at 25.806 % while Dartmouth posts a sharper 30.928 %. From the floor, the home squad hits 43.75 % of its attempts, but the visitors convert at 46.193 %, giving the Big Green a clear edge in efficiency.
Offensive output further separates the teams: UAlbany averages 68.667 points while allowing 69.333, producing a marginal –0.667 margin. Dartmouth, by contrast, scores 82.333 points per game and yields only 63.333, yielding a robust 19.0 margin. The gap between the programs stands at –19.667, underscoring the disparity in overall performance.
Betting trends, however, reveal a stark contrast to the on‑court numbers. Dartmouth Big Green is 4‑24 straight up after a loss versus a winning team, a win‑pct of 0.143 across a sample of 28 contests, suggesting recent results have not mirrored the statistical advantage.
The model backs Dartmouth on the moneyline at –125, and the strength designation is play. Dartmouth –125 play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DART Dartmouth Big Green | -125 | -1.5 | O 139.5 |
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | +105 | +1.5 | U 139.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DART Dartmouth Big Green | -164 | -4.5 | O 151 |
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | +164 | +4.5 | U 151 |
Our Picks
Play to -3.7
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+139.50): This factor contributes +139.50 to the projection, favoring UAlbany.
- Combined Tempo (+70.92): This factor contributes +70.92 to the projection, favoring UAlbany.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-19.67): Dartmouth's scoring margin advantage of 19.67 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-19.04): This factor contributes -19.04 to the projection, favoring Dartmouth.
Recent Trends
UAlbany Trends:
- UAlbany Great Danes is 1-5 ATS underdog
- The over is 1-5 in UAlbany Great Danes's games underdog
- UAlbany Great Danes is 1-5 straight up underdog
- UAlbany Great Danes is 11-4 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- The over is 2-6 in UAlbany Great Danes's games with 3+ days rest
Dartmouth Trends:
- Dartmouth Big Green is 4-24 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Dartmouth Big Green is 14-46 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Dartmouth Big Green is 8-31 straight up vs teams above .500
- Dartmouth Big Green is 8-30 straight up in non-conference games
- Dartmouth Big Green is 19-55 straight up away
Matchup Edges
UAlbany
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (1-1) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +139.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 14.7 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Opponent's 82.3 PPG offense exceeds home defense (69.3 PPG) by 13.0
- Model win probability of only 38% despite home advantage
Dartmouth
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (1-1) record (67% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 82.3 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 63.3 PPG
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -19.67 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (68.7 PPG) that exceeds road defense (63.3 PPG) by 5.3
- Averaging 63.3 PPG allowed on defense