Franklin Grizzlies vs Bellarmine Knights
Thursday, November 12, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Bellarmine’s five days of rest versus Franklin’s staggering 374‑day layoff frames the primary narrative for this opening‑season showdown. The disparity in recovery time gives the Knights a clear advantage in freshness, especially as neither team is navigating a back‑to‑back schedule.
Offensively, the Knights shoot 22.581 % from three‑point range and convert 43.902 % of field‑goal attempts, while Franklin lags at 26.667 % from beyond the arc and 31.111 % overall. The contrast in efficiency highlights Bellarmine’s more balanced scoring profile, despite the Knights’ slightly lower three‑point mark, and underscores Franklin’s struggle to find rhythm early in the season.
Ball control further tilts the balance. Bellarmine forces 15.0 turnovers per game compared with Franklin’s 25.0, a differential of –10.0 that points to a significant advantage in limiting opponent possessions. The Knights’ ability to protect the ball and force mistakes should translate into extra scoring opportunities and defensive stability.
Given the data, this contest is a pass – no line or side meets the threshold for recommendation.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
Market odds not available from ESPN for this game.
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRKL Franklin Grizzlies | -274 | -3.5 | O 100 |
| BELL Bellarmine Knights | +274 | +3.5 | U 100 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Rest Advantage (-369.00): The rest differential (369.00) gives Franklin fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
- Pace Mismatch (+114.33): A 114.33-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Bellarmine's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Market Total Signal (+100.00): This factor contributes +100.00 to the projection, favoring Bellarmine.
- Points Allowed Differential (+88.33): The defensive scoring differential (88.33 PPG) favors Bellarmine, who allows fewer points per game.
Recent Trends
Bellarmine Trends:
- Bellarmine Knights is 9-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Bellarmine Knights is 6-1 ATS at home after a loss
- Bellarmine Knights is 10-2 ATS home
- Bellarmine Knights is 10-2 ATS with 2+ days rest
- Bellarmine Knights is 7-1 ATS underdog
Matchup Edges
Bellarmine
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Pace Mismatch contributes +114.33 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -25.3 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-3 (0-0) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 88.3 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 15.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Limited offense averaging just 63.0 PPG
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Franklin
Advantages
- 374-day rest advantage over opponent's 5 days
- Rest Advantage contributes -369.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +37.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Anemic offense at just 37.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 25.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges