Wisconsin Badgers vs Washington Huskies
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NCAAB matchup features Wisconsin Badgers (19-9 (14-2)) traveling to take on Washington Huskies (14-14 (9-5)) at Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, WA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
On offense, Washington averages 76.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Wisconsin defense typically allows (76.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Wisconsin offense puts up 82.7 PPG and faces a Washington defense allowing 72.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Washington will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 1.4-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Washington winning by 14 to losing by 11.
The market has this game at +1.5, but our model sees value on Washington with a 2.9-point edge. Our line: Washington -1.4. Combined with the total projection of 159 versus the market line of 153.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
WIS Wisconsin
Stat
WASH Washington
19-9 (14-2)
Record
14-14 (9-5)
Last 10
82.7
PPG
76.3
76.1
Opp PPG
72.1
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIS Wisconsin Badgers | -150 | -1.5 | O 153.5 |
| WASH Washington Huskies | +150 | +1.5 | U 153.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:04 AM
Opening line: +1.5 / O/U 153.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIS Wisconsin Badgers | +125 | +1.4 | O 159 |
| WASH Washington Huskies | -125 | -1.4 | U 159 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:43 AM
Our Picks
Spread
Washington (opened at +1.5)
53% Confidence
Play to -2.1
Total
Over (opened at 153.5)
61% Confidence
Play to 158.3
Recent Trends
Washington enters at 14-14 (9-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum.
Wisconsin sits at 19-9 (14-2) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Washington
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 76.3 PPG
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Wisconsin
Advantages
- Strong 19-9 (14-2) overall record this season
- Potent offense averaging 82.7 PPG
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Defense allows 76.1 PPG — exploitable