SharpBetz
NCAAB

Wisconsin Badgers vs Washington Huskies

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Wisconsin Badgers (19-9 (14-2)) traveling to take on Washington Huskies (14-14 (9-5)) at Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, WA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, Washington averages 76.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Wisconsin defense typically allows (76.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Wisconsin offense puts up 82.7 PPG and faces a Washington defense allowing 72.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Washington will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 1.4-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Washington winning by 14 to losing by 11. The market has this game at +1.5, but our model sees value on Washington with a 2.9-point edge. Our line: Washington -1.4. Combined with the total projection of 159 versus the market line of 153.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

WIS Wisconsin
Stat
WASH Washington
19-9 (14-2)
Record
14-14 (9-5)
Last 10
82.7
PPG
76.3
76.1
Opp PPG
72.1

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
WIS Wisconsin Badgers
-150 -1.5 O 153.5
WASH Washington Huskies
+150 +1.5 U 153.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:04 AM
Opening line: +1.5 / O/U 153.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
WIS Wisconsin Badgers
+125 +1.4 O 159
WASH Washington Huskies
-125 -1.4 U 159
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:43 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Washington (opened at +1.5)
53% Confidence

Play to -2.1

Total
Over (opened at 153.5)
61% Confidence

Play to 158.3

Recent Trends

Washington enters at 14-14 (9-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Wisconsin sits at 19-9 (14-2) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Washington

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Strong offense averaging 76.3 PPG
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Wisconsin

Advantages

  • Strong 19-9 (14-2) overall record this season
  • Potent offense averaging 82.7 PPG
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Defense allows 76.1 PPG — exploitable

More NCAAB Picks for Saturday, February 28, 2026