11 Virginia Cavaliers vs 1 Duke Blue Devils

This NCAAB matchup features No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers (25-3 (14-1)) traveling to take on No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (26-2 (13-0)) at Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC. The Duke hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Virginia by 5.6 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Duke averages 83.0 points per game, which exceeds what the Virginia defense typically allows (67.8 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Virginia offense puts up 82.3 PPG and faces a Duke defense allowing 62.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Duke will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Duke to win by approximately 6.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Duke winning by 19 to losing by 6. The market has this game at -10.5, but our model sees value on Virginia with a 4.2-point edge. Our line: Duke -6.3. Combined with the total projection of 165 versus the market line of 141.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Duke has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 26-2 (13-0) record. Their 26-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Duke have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Virginia comes in with an impressive 25-3 (14-1) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.