Valparaiso Beacons vs Evansville Purple Aces

This NCAAB matchup features Valparaiso Beacons (17-13 (13-4)) traveling to take on Evansville Purple Aces (6-23 (4-9)) at Ford Center, Evansville, IN. The Valparaiso hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Evansville by 10.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Evansville averages 66.8 points per game, but they face a Valparaiso defense that holds opponents to 70.9 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Valparaiso scores 71.7 PPG but faces a Evansville defense that limits opponents to 76.5 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Evansville will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Valparaiso to win by approximately 3.7 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Evansville winning by 9 to losing by 16. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Evansville has struggled this season at 6-23 (4-9). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Valparaiso sits at 17-13 (13-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.