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NCAAB

Utah Utes vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Utah Utes (10-18 (8-8)) traveling to take on Arizona State Sun Devils (14-14 (8-5)) at Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Arizona St averages 78.1 points per game, but they face a Utah defense that holds opponents to 78.3 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Utah scores 75.0 PPG but faces a Arizona St defense that limits opponents to 78.9 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Arizona St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Arizona St to win by approximately 4.6 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Arizona St winning by 17 to losing by 8. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Team Comparison

UTAH Utah
Stat
ASU Arizona St
10-18 (8-8)
Record
14-14 (8-5)
Last 10
75.0
PPG
78.1
78.3
Opp PPG
78.9

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
UTAH Utah Utes
0 +6.5 O 150.5
ASU Arizona State Sun Devils
0 -6.5 U 150.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:43 AM
Opening line: -6.5 / O/U 150.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
UTAH Utah Utes
+187 +4.6 O 153.1
ASU Arizona State Sun Devils
-187 -4.6 U 153.1
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:04 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Pass
Model: -4.6 | Edge below threshold
Total
Pass
Model: 153.1 | Edge below threshold

Recent Trends

Arizona St enters at 14-14 (8-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Utah at 10-18 (8-8). Traveling to face Arizona St presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Arizona St

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Strong offense averaging 78.1 PPG
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Defense allows 78.9 PPG — a vulnerability
  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Utah

Advantages

  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 10-18 (8-8) record this season

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