16 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs 4 Iowa State Cyclones

This NCAAB matchup features No. 16 Texas Tech Red Raiders (21-7 (14-1)) traveling to take on No. 4 Iowa State Cyclones (24-4 (15-0)) at Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA. The Iowa State hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Texas Tech by 8.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Iowa State averages 82.8 points per game, which exceeds what the Texas Tech defense typically allows (72.2 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Texas Tech offense puts up 82.0 PPG and faces a Iowa State defense allowing 64.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Iowa State will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Iowa State to win by approximately 7.7 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Iowa State winning by 20 to losing by 5. The market has this game at -10.5, but our model sees value on Texas Tech with a 2.9-point edge. Our line: Iowa State -7.7. Combined with the total projection of 165 versus the market line of 146.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Iowa State has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 24-4 (15-0) record. Their 24-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Iowa State have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Texas Tech comes in with an impressive 21-7 (14-1) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.