Tarleton State Texans vs California Baptist Lancers

This NCAAB matchup features Tarleton State Texans (14-15 (10-5)) traveling to take on California Baptist Lancers (20-8 (13-0)) at Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, CA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. CA Baptist averages 71.8 points per game, but they face a Tarleton St defense that holds opponents to 73.0 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Tarleton St offense puts up 75.2 PPG and faces a CA Baptist defense allowing 68.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and CA Baptist will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects CA Baptist to win by approximately 5.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from CA Baptist winning by 18 to losing by 7. The market has this game at -7.5, but our model sees value on Tarleton St with a 2.2-point edge. Our line: CA Baptist -5.3. Combined with the total projection of 147 versus the market line of 139.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

CA Baptist has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 20-8 (13-0) record. Their 20-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. It's been a difficult season for Tarleton St at 14-15 (10-5). Traveling to face CA Baptist presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.