Syracuse Orange vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NCAAB matchup features Syracuse Orange (15-13 (12-5)) traveling to take on Wake Forest Demon Deacons (14-14 (10-6)) at LJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
On offense, Wake Forest averages 78.8 points per game, which exceeds what the Syracuse defense typically allows (73.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Syracuse scores 75.6 PPG but faces a Wake Forest defense that limits opponents to 76.9 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Wake Forest will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 0.9-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Wake Forest winning by 14 to losing by 12.
The market has this game at -4.5, but our model sees value on Syracuse with a 3.6-point edge. Our line: Wake Forest -0.9. Combined with the total projection of 154 versus the market line of 152.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
SYR Syracuse
Stat
WAKE Wake Forest
15-13 (12-5)
Record
14-14 (10-6)
Last 10
75.6
PPG
78.8
73.4
Opp PPG
76.9
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SYR Syracuse Orange | +338 | +4.5 | O 152.5 |
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | -338 | -4.5 | U 152.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:04 AM
Opening line: -4.5 / O/U 152.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SYR Syracuse Orange | +133 | +0.9 | O 154.4 |
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | -133 | -0.9 | U 154.4 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:44 AM
Our Picks
Spread
Syracuse (opened at -4.5)
54% Confidence
Play to -1.6
Total
Pass
Model: 154.4 | Edge below threshold
Recent Trends
Wake Forest enters at 14-14 (10-6), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum.
Syracuse sits at 15-13 (12-5) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Wake Forest
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 78.8 PPG
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 76.9 PPG — a vulnerability
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Syracuse
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 75.6 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Road fatigue and travel can impact energy levels