Stony Brook Seawolves vs Hofstra Pride

This NCAAB matchup features Stony Brook Seawolves (17-12 (12-3)) traveling to take on Hofstra Pride (19-10 (8-2)) at David S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex, Hempstead, NY. The Hofstra hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Stony Brook by 7.6 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Hofstra averages 76.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Stony Brook defense typically allows (70.5 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Stony Brook offense puts up 72.1 PPG and faces a Hofstra defense allowing 67.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Hofstra will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Hofstra to win by approximately 4.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Hofstra winning by 18 to losing by 8. The market has this game at -12.5, but our model sees value on Stony Brook with a 7.7-point edge. Our line: Hofstra -4.8. Combined with the total projection of 148 versus the market line of 140.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Hofstra enters at 19-10 (8-2), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Stony Brook sits at 17-12 (12-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.