St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs George Mason Patriots

This NCAAB matchup features St. Bonaventure Bonnies (15-13 (9-6)) traveling to take on George Mason Patriots (21-7 (15-2)) at EagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA. The George Mason hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the St Bonaventure by 3.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. George Mason averages 73.9 points per game, but they face a St Bonaventure defense that holds opponents to 74.9 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The St Bonaventure offense puts up 77.4 PPG and faces a George Mason defense allowing 68.3 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and George Mason will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects George Mason to win by approximately 5.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from George Mason winning by 19 to losing by 7. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

George Mason has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 21-7 (15-2) record. Their 21-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the George Mason have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. St Bonaventure sits at 15-13 (9-6) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.