San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos

This NCAAB matchup features San Diego State Aztecs (19-8 (13-2)) traveling to take on New Mexico Lobos (21-7 (13-2)) at The Pit, Albuquerque, NM. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, New Mexico averages 80.6 points per game, which exceeds what the San Diego St defense typically allows (70.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The San Diego St offense puts up 79.3 PPG and faces a New Mexico defense allowing 69.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and New Mexico will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects New Mexico to win by approximately 3.7 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from New Mexico winning by 16 to losing by 9. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

New Mexico has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 21-7 (13-2) record. Their 21-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the New Mexico have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. San Diego St comes in with an impressive 19-8 (13-2) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.