Sacramento State Hornets vs Montana State Bobcats

This NCAAB matchup features Sacramento State Hornets (9-19 (9-4)) traveling to take on Montana State Bobcats (16-13 (10-2)) at Worthington Arena, Bozeman, MT. The Montana St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Sacramento St by 10.1 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Montana St averages 78.0 points per game, but they face a Sacramento St defense that holds opponents to 83.1 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Sacramento St offense puts up 79.2 PPG and faces a Montana St defense allowing 71.8 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Montana St will look to leverage their home crowd. The Montana St are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 12.0-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Montana St winning by 25 to losing by 1. The market has this game at -9.5, but our model sees value on Montana St with a 2.5-point edge. Our line: Montana St -12.0. Combined with the total projection of 157 versus the market line of 157.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Montana St enters at 16-13 (10-2), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Sacramento St at 9-19 (9-4). Traveling to face Montana St presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.