Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs IU Indianapolis Jaguars

This NCAAB matchup features Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (16-14 (11-4)) traveling to take on IU Indianapolis Jaguars (7-23 (5-8)) at The Jungle, Indianapolis, IN. The Purdue FW hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the IU Indy by 5.7 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, IU Indy averages 83.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Purdue FW defense typically allows (77.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Purdue FW scores 78.5 PPG but faces a IU Indy defense that limits opponents to 87.9 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and IU Indy will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 2.3-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from IU Indy winning by 10 to losing by 15. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

IU Indy has struggled this season at 7-23 (5-8). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Purdue FW sits at 16-14 (11-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.