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NCAAB

Providence Friars vs Creighton Bluejays

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Providence Friars (13-15 (10-5)) traveling to take on Creighton Bluejays (14-15 (10-5)) at CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, NE. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Creighton averages 75.6 points per game, but they face a Providence defense that holds opponents to 84.7 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Providence offense puts up 87.1 PPG and faces a Creighton defense allowing 75.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Creighton will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Creighton to win by approximately 7.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Creighton winning by 21 to losing by 5. The market has this game at -2.5, but our model sees value on Creighton with a 5.3-point edge. Our line: Creighton -7.8. Combined with the total projection of 163 versus the market line of 166.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

PROV Providence
Stat
CREI Creighton
13-15 (10-5)
Record
14-15 (10-5)
Last 10
87.1
PPG
75.6
84.7
Opp PPG
75.6

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
PROV Providence Friars
+197 +2.5 O 166.5
CREI Creighton Bluejays
-197 -2.5 U 166.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:04 AM
Opening line: -2.5 / O/U 166.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
PROV Providence Friars
+137 +7.8 O 162.6
CREI Creighton Bluejays
-137 -7.8 U 162.6
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:44 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Creighton (opened at -2.5)
56% Confidence

Play to -8.6

Total
Pass
Model: 162.6 | Edge below threshold

Recent Trends

Creighton has struggled this season at 14-15 (10-5). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Providence at 13-15 (10-5). Traveling to face Creighton presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Creighton

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Strong offense averaging 75.6 PPG
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 14-15 (10-5) raises concerns
  • Defense allows 75.6 PPG — a vulnerability

Providence

Advantages

  • Potent offense averaging 87.1 PPG
  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 13-15 (10-5) record this season

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