Omaha Mavericks vs St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies

This NCAAB matchup features Omaha Mavericks (15-15 (10-4)) traveling to take on St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies (22-8 (13-1)) at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena, Saint Paul, MN. The St Thomas (MN) hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Omaha by 10.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, St Thomas (MN) averages 83.8 points per game, which exceeds what the Omaha defense typically allows (77.3 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Omaha offense puts up 77.6 PPG and faces a St Thomas (MN) defense allowing 72.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and St Thomas (MN) will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects St Thomas (MN) to win by approximately 9.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from St Thomas (MN) winning by 22 to losing by 4. The market has this game at -12.5, but our model sees value on Omaha with a 3.3-point edge. Our line: St Thomas (MN) -9.2. Combined with the total projection of 161 versus the market line of 157.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

St Thomas (MN) has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 22-8 (13-1) record. Their 22-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. Omaha sits at 15-15 (10-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.