North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs North Dakota State Bison

This NCAAB matchup features North Dakota Fighting Hawks (16-15 (9-7)) traveling to take on North Dakota State Bison (23-7 (12-1)) at Scheels Center, Fargo, ND. The N Dakota St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the North Dakota by 10.1 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, N Dakota St averages 81.0 points per game, which exceeds what the North Dakota defense typically allows (77.6 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The North Dakota offense puts up 77.6 PPG and faces a N Dakota St defense allowing 70.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and N Dakota St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects N Dakota St to win by approximately 9.0 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from N Dakota St winning by 22 to losing by 4. The market has this game at -12.5, but our model sees value on North Dakota with a 3.5-point edge. Our line: N Dakota St -9.0. Combined with the total projection of 158 versus the market line of 150.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

N Dakota St has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 23-7 (12-1) record. Their 23-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the N Dakota St have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. North Dakota sits at 16-15 (9-7) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.