Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

This NCAAB matchup features Missouri Tigers (19-9 (15-2)) traveling to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-15 (8-6)) at Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS. The Missouri hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Mississippi St by 6.9 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Mississippi St averages 78.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Missouri defense typically allows (75.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Missouri scores 80.0 PPG but faces a Mississippi St defense that limits opponents to 80.0 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Mississippi St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Missouri to win by approximately 3.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Mississippi St winning by 9 to losing by 16. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Mississippi St has struggled this season at 13-15 (8-6). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Missouri sits at 19-9 (15-2) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.