Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

This NCAAB matchup features Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (2-27 (2-9)) traveling to take on Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (12-16 (7-3)) at H.O. Clemmons Arena, Pine Bluff, AR. The AR-Pine Bluff hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Miss Valley St by 14.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. AR-Pine Bluff averages 77.2 points per game, but they face a Miss Valley St defense that holds opponents to 84.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Miss Valley St scores 64.0 PPG but faces a AR-Pine Bluff defense that limits opponents to 82.5 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and AR-Pine Bluff will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects AR-Pine Bluff to win by approximately 9.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from AR-Pine Bluff winning by 22 to losing by 4. The market has this game at -13.5, but our model sees value on Miss Valley St with a 4.2-point edge. Our line: AR-Pine Bluff -9.2. Combined with the total projection of 141 versus the market line of 147.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

AR-Pine Bluff has struggled this season at 12-16 (7-3). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Miss Valley St at 2-27 (2-9). Traveling to face AR-Pine Bluff presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.