Mercyhurst Lakers vs Stonehill Skyhawks

This NCAAB matchup features Mercyhurst Lakers (14-16 (10-3)) traveling to take on Stonehill Skyhawks (11-19 (8-4)) at Merkert Gymnasium, South Easton, MA. The Mercyhurst hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Stonehill by 4.4 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Stonehill averages 66.2 points per game, but they face a Mercyhurst defense that holds opponents to 67.6 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Mercyhurst offense puts up 69.6 PPG and faces a Stonehill defense allowing 68.7 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Stonehill will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 1.1-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Stonehill winning by 14 to losing by 12. The market has this game at +1.5, but our model sees value on Stonehill with a 2.5-point edge. Our line: Stonehill -1.1. Combined with the total projection of 136 versus the market line of 135.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Stonehill has struggled this season at 11-19 (8-4). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Mercyhurst at 14-16 (10-3). Traveling to face Stonehill presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.