Lindenwood Lions vs Western Illinois Leathernecks

This NCAAB matchup features Lindenwood Lions (16-14 (9-5)) traveling to take on Western Illinois Leathernecks (5-25 (4-10)) at Western Hall, Macomb, IL. The Lindenwood hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the W Illinois by 16.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. W Illinois averages 64.7 points per game, but they face a Lindenwood defense that holds opponents to 73.3 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Lindenwood offense puts up 77.9 PPG and faces a W Illinois defense allowing 76.3 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and W Illinois will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Lindenwood to win by approximately 6.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from W Illinois winning by 6 to losing by 20. The market has this game at +10.5, but our model sees value on W Illinois with a 3.7-point edge. Our line: W Illinois +6.8. Combined with the total projection of 143 versus the market line of 148.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

W Illinois has struggled this season at 5-25 (4-10). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Lindenwood sits at 16-14 (9-5) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.