9 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Saint Mary's Gaels

This NCAAB matchup features No. 9 Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-2 (15-0)) traveling to take on Saint Mary's Gaels (26-4 (16-0)) at University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA. The Gonzaga hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Saint Mary's by 6.4 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Saint Mary's averages 78.7 points per game, which exceeds what the Gonzaga defense typically allows (66.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Gonzaga offense puts up 86.9 PPG and faces a Saint Mary's defense allowing 64.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Saint Mary's will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Gonzaga to win by approximately 4.5 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Saint Mary's winning by 8 to losing by 17. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Saint Mary's has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 26-4 (16-0) record. Their 26-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Saint Mary's have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Gonzaga comes in with an impressive 28-2 (15-0) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.