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NCAAB

Florida International Panthers vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Florida International Panthers (13-15 (11-5)) traveling to take on Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (16-12 (14-2)) at Thomas Assembly Center, Ruston, LA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Louisiana Tech averages 69.0 points per game, but they face a FIU defense that holds opponents to 78.6 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The FIU offense puts up 80.9 PPG and faces a Louisiana Tech defense allowing 64.7 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Louisiana Tech will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Louisiana Tech to win by approximately 5.5 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Louisiana Tech winning by 18 to losing by 7. The market has this game at -2.5, but our model sees value on Louisiana Tech with a 3.0-point edge. Our line: Louisiana Tech -5.5. Combined with the total projection of 150 versus the market line of 145.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

FIU FIU
Stat
LT Louisiana Tech
13-15 (11-5)
Record
16-12 (14-2)
Last 10
80.9
PPG
69.0
78.6
Opp PPG
64.7

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
FIU Florida International Panthers
+197 +2.5 O 145.5
LT Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
-197 -2.5 U 145.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:04 AM
Opening line: -2.5 / O/U 145.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
FIU Florida International Panthers
+183 +5.5 O 149.9
LT Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
-183 -5.5 U 149.9
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:43 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Louisiana Tech (opened at -2.5)
53% Confidence

Play to -6.3

Total
Over (opened at 145.5)
58% Confidence

Play to 149.2

Recent Trends

Louisiana Tech enters at 16-12 (14-2), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for FIU at 13-15 (11-5). Traveling to face Louisiana Tech presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Louisiana Tech

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Elite defense allowing just 64.7 PPG
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

FIU

Advantages

  • Potent offense averaging 80.9 PPG
  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 13-15 (11-5) record this season

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