Duquesne Dukes vs 23 Saint Louis Billikens

This NCAAB matchup features Duquesne Dukes (16-12 (11-6)) traveling to take on No. 23 Saint Louis Billikens (25-3 (17-0)) at Chaifetz Arena, St. Louis, MO. The Saint Louis hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Duquesne by 16.1 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Saint Louis averages 89.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Duquesne defense typically allows (75.6 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Duquesne offense puts up 80.1 PPG and faces a Saint Louis defense allowing 68.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Saint Louis will look to leverage their home crowd. The Saint Louis are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 13.7-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Saint Louis winning by 26 to winning by 1. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Saint Louis has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 25-3 (17-0) record. Their 25-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Saint Louis have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Duquesne sits at 16-12 (11-6) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.