Colorado State Rams vs San José State Spartans

This NCAAB matchup features Colorado State Rams (18-10 (12-4)) traveling to take on San José State Spartans (8-20 (6-8)) at Provident Credit Union Event Center, San Jose, CA. The Colorado St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the San José St by 11.9 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, San José St averages 71.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Colorado St defense typically allows (71.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Colorado St scores 76.7 PPG but faces a San José St defense that limits opponents to 77.5 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and San José St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Colorado St to win by approximately 3.6 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from San José St winning by 9 to losing by 16. The market has this game at +7.5, but our model sees value on San José St with a 3.9-point edge. Our line: San José St +3.6. Combined with the total projection of 148 versus the market line of 145.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

San José St has struggled this season at 8-20 (6-8). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Colorado St sits at 18-10 (12-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.