Colgate Raiders vs Navy Midshipmen

This NCAAB matchup features Colgate Raiders (17-13 (8-5)) traveling to take on Navy Midshipmen (24-6 (13-1)) at Alumni Hall (Navy), Annapolis, MD. The Navy hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Colgate by 9.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Navy averages 74.5 points per game, which exceeds what the Colgate defense typically allows (74.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Colgate offense puts up 76.5 PPG and faces a Navy defense allowing 63.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Navy will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Navy to win by approximately 8.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Navy winning by 22 to losing by 4. The market has this game at -6.5, but our model sees value on Navy with a 2.4-point edge. Our line: Navy -8.8. Combined with the total projection of 151 versus the market line of 142.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Navy has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 24-6 (13-1) record. Their 24-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Navy have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Colgate sits at 17-13 (8-5) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.