Chicago State Cougars vs Wagner Seahawks

This NCAAB matchup features Chicago State Cougars (7-23 (5-6)) traveling to take on Wagner Seahawks (12-16 (7-5)) at Spiro Sports Center, Staten Island, NY. The Wagner hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Chicago St by 9.1 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Wagner averages 71.6 points per game, but they face a Chicago St defense that holds opponents to 75.8 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Chicago St scores 65.6 PPG but faces a Wagner defense that limits opponents to 72.7 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Wagner will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Wagner to win by approximately 6.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Wagner winning by 20 to losing by 6. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Wagner has struggled this season at 12-16 (7-5). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Chicago St at 7-23 (5-6). Traveling to face Wagner presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.