Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs UNC Asheville Bulldogs
Saturday, February 28, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NCAAB matchup features Charleston Southern Buccaneers (14-16 (10-4)) traveling to take on UNC Asheville Bulldogs (14-15 (8-6)) at Kimmel Arena, Asheville, NC. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
UNC Asheville averages 73.0 points per game, but they face a Charleston So defense that holds opponents to 80.1 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Charleston So offense puts up 83.2 PPG and faces a UNC Asheville defense allowing 71.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UNC Asheville will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects UNC Asheville to win by approximately 7.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UNC Asheville winning by 20 to losing by 6.
The market has this game at -4.5, but our model sees value on UNC Asheville with a 2.8-point edge. Our line: UNC Asheville -7.3. Combined with the total projection of 156 versus the market line of 149.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
CHSO Charleston So
Stat
UNCA UNC Asheville
14-16 (10-4)
Record
14-15 (8-6)
Last 10
83.2
PPG
73.0
80.1
Opp PPG
71.9
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHSO Charleston Southern Buccaneers | +338 | +4.5 | O 149.5 |
| UNCA UNC Asheville Bulldogs | -338 | -4.5 | U 149.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 28, 5:03 AM
Opening line: -4.5 / O/U 149.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHSO Charleston Southern Buccaneers | +134 | +7.3 | O 156.3 |
| UNCA UNC Asheville Bulldogs | -134 | -7.3 | U 156.3 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 28, 5:43 AM
Our Picks
Spread
UNC Asheville (opened at -4.5)
53% Confidence
Play to -8
Total
Over (opened at 149.5)
63% Confidence
Play to 155.5
Recent Trends
UNC Asheville has struggled this season at 14-15 (8-6). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset.
It's been a difficult season for Charleston So at 14-16 (10-4). Traveling to face UNC Asheville presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
UNC Asheville
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 14-15 (8-6) raises concerns
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Charleston So
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 83.2 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 14-16 (10-4) record this season