Cal Poly Mustangs vs UC San Diego Tritons

This NCAAB matchup features Cal Poly Mustangs (13-16 (7-6)) traveling to take on UC San Diego Tritons (20-9 (9-5)) at LionTree Arena, San Diego, CA. The UC San Diego hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Cal Poly by 9.1 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. UC San Diego averages 76.4 points per game, but they face a Cal Poly defense that holds opponents to 85.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Cal Poly offense puts up 82.2 PPG and faces a UC San Diego defense allowing 70.3 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UC San Diego will look to leverage their home crowd. The UC San Diego are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 10.5-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UC San Diego winning by 23 to losing by 2. The market has this game at -6.5, but our model sees value on UC San Diego with a 4.0-point edge. Our line: UC San Diego -10.5. Combined with the total projection of 159 versus the market line of 162.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

UC San Diego enters at 20-9 (9-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Cal Poly at 13-16 (7-6). Traveling to face UC San Diego presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.