Central Michigan Chippewas vs Buffalo Bulls

This NCAAB matchup features Central Michigan Chippewas (9-19 (8-4)) traveling to take on Buffalo Bulls (16-12 (6-7)) at Alumni Arena, Buffalo, NY. The Buffalo hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the C Michigan by 6.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Buffalo averages 78.8 points per game, which exceeds what the C Michigan defense typically allows (76.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, C Michigan scores 73.8 PPG but faces a Buffalo defense that limits opponents to 75.9 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Buffalo will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Buffalo to win by approximately 4.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Buffalo winning by 17 to losing by 8. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Buffalo enters at 16-12 (6-7), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for C Michigan at 9-19 (8-4). Traveling to face Buffalo presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.