SharpBetz
NCAAB

Princeton Tigers vs Brown Bears

Saturday, February 21, 2026

Final Score Princeton 71 - Brown 80
Spread: W Total: W

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Princeton Tigers (8-17 (7-3)) traveling to take on Brown Bears (8-15 (5-7)) at Pizzitola Sports Center, Providence, RI. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Brown averages 72.0 points per game, but they face a Princeton defense that holds opponents to 75.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Princeton scores 71.4 PPG but faces a Brown defense that limits opponents to 74.8 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Brown will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Brown to win by approximately 3.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Brown winning by 17 to losing by 10. The market has this game at -1.5, but our model sees value on Brown with a 2.3-point edge. Our line: Brown -3.8. Combined with the total projection of 143 versus the market line of 131.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

PRIN Princeton
Stat
BRWN Brown
8-17 (7-3)
Record
8-15 (5-7)
Last 10
71.4
PPG
72.0
75.2
Opp PPG
74.8

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
PRIN Princeton Tigers
+114 +2.5 O 129.5
BRWN Brown Bears
-135 -2.5 U 129.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 21, 4:11 AM
Opening line: -1.5 / O/U 131.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
PRIN Princeton Tigers
+178 +3.8 O 143.4
BRWN Brown Bears
-178 -3.8 U 143.4
Source: Model Updated: Feb 20, 11:18 AM

Our Picks

Spread W
Brown (opened at -1.5)
52% Confidence
Total W
Over (opened at 131.5)
73% Confidence

Recent Trends

Brown has struggled this season at 8-15 (5-7). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Princeton at 8-17 (7-3). Traveling to face Brown presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Brown

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 8-15 (5-7) raises concerns
  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Princeton

Advantages

  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 8-17 (7-3) record this season