Niagara Purple Eagles vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

This NCAAB matchup features Niagara Purple Eagles (7-19 (5-6)) traveling to take on Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (12-15 (6-5)) at Knott Arena, Emmitsburg, MD. The Mount St Marys hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Niagara by 6.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Mount St Marys averages 73.9 points per game, but they face a Niagara defense that holds opponents to 76.0 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Niagara scores 70.4 PPG but faces a Mount St Marys defense that limits opponents to 73.3 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Mount St Marys will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Mount St Marys to win by approximately 6.5 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Mount St Marys winning by 20 to losing by 7. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Mount St Marys has struggled this season at 12-15 (6-5). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Niagara at 7-19 (5-6). Traveling to face Mount St Marys presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.