Marist Red Foxes vs Manhattan Jaspers

This NCAAB matchup features Marist Red Foxes (16-10 (10-3)) traveling to take on Manhattan Jaspers (12-16 (7-5)) at Draddy Gymnasium, Riverdale, NY. The Marist hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Manhattan by 6.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Manhattan averages 73.6 points per game, which exceeds what the Marist defense typically allows (70.8 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Marist offense puts up 77.3 PPG and faces a Manhattan defense allowing 73.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Manhattan will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 1.9-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Manhattan winning by 12 to losing by 16. The market has this game at +4.5, but our model sees value on Manhattan with a 2.6-point edge. Our line: Manhattan +1.9. Combined with the total projection of 151 versus the market line of 141.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Manhattan has struggled this season at 12-16 (7-5). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Marist sits at 16-10 (10-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.