Troy Trojans vs UL Monroe Warhawks

This NCAAB matchup features Troy Trojans (18-10 (8-3)) traveling to take on UL Monroe Warhawks (4-24 (3-9)) at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, Monroe, LA. The Troy hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the UL Monroe by 17.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. UL Monroe averages 67.9 points per game, but they face a Troy defense that holds opponents to 70.4 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Troy scores 77.9 PPG but faces a UL Monroe defense that limits opponents to 77.9 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UL Monroe will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Troy to win by approximately 8.6 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UL Monroe winning by 4 to losing by 21. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

UL Monroe has struggled this season at 4-24 (3-9). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Troy sits at 18-10 (8-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.