11 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs San Francisco Dons

This NCAAB matchup features No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-2 (13-0)) traveling to take on San Francisco Dons (15-14 (10-5)) at Chase Center, San Francisco, CA. The Gonzaga hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the San Francisco by 14.4 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, San Francisco averages 75.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Gonzaga defense typically allows (66.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Gonzaga offense puts up 83.6 PPG and faces a San Francisco defense allowing 72.2 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and San Francisco will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Gonzaga to win by approximately 6.0 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from San Francisco winning by 6 to losing by 19. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

San Francisco enters at 15-14 (10-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Gonzaga comes in with an impressive 26-2 (13-0) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.