Florida Atlantic Owls vs UTSA Roadrunners

This NCAAB matchup features Florida Atlantic Owls (15-12 (9-4)) traveling to take on UTSA Roadrunners (5-21 (2-10)) at UTSA Convocation Center, San Antonio, TX. The FAU hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the UTSA by 12.7 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. UTSA averages 68.8 points per game, but they face a FAU defense that holds opponents to 71.7 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, FAU scores 76.1 PPG but faces a UTSA defense that limits opponents to 77.1 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UTSA will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects FAU to win by approximately 5.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UTSA winning by 7 to losing by 18. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

UTSA has struggled this season at 5-21 (2-10). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. FAU sits at 15-12 (9-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.