Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards
Monday, November 16, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile provides the clearest lens for this contest. Washington’s three‑point conversion sits at 30.496 percent while Houston’s climbs to 37.22, and the overall field‑goal percentages read 45.76 for the Wizards versus 47.788 for the Rockets. The disparity in long‑range efficiency suggests the visiting side can generate more scoring bursts, a factor that will likely shape the flow in a high‑tempo game.
In terms of availability, the Wizards are without two contributors: forward Tristan Vukcevic and guard Reece Beekman are listed as out. The Rockets are missing a single presence, center Clint Capela. Those absences trim depth for both clubs, yet the disparity in numbers—two for Washington, one for Houston—keeps the balance modestly tipped toward the visitors.
A glaring trend emerges from the home team’s recent schedule: Washington has gone 2‑18 straight up at Capital One Arena when playing on consecutive nights, a win percentage of 0.1 across a 20‑game sample. That back‑to‑back slump underscores a broader struggle to compete when fatigue sets in, further dampening any optimism for a home‑court advantage.
There is no viable line to take; the spread offers no edge. The pick is a pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Houston Rockets | -380 | -8.5 | O 222.5 |
| WSH Washington Wizards | +301 | +8.5 | U 222.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Houston Rockets | -224 | -7 | O 226.2 |
| WSH Washington Wizards | +224 | +7 | U 226.2 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +7
Injury-adjusted total: 226.2
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+222.50): This factor contributes +222.50 to the projection, favoring Wizards.
- Combined Tempo (+112.33): This factor contributes +112.33 to the projection, favoring Wizards.
- Common Opponent Performance (-39.75): When playing common opponents, Rockets outperformed by a 39.75-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-14.79): This factor contributes -14.79 to the projection, favoring Rockets.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Wizards Trends:
- Washington Wizards is 5-30 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Washington Wizards is 2-18 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- Washington Wizards is 8-40 straight up vs teams above .500
- Washington Wizards is 2-18 straight up on a back-to-back
- Washington Wizards is 1-13 straight up underdog
Rockets Trends:
- Houston Rockets is 0-5 ATS after a loss
- The over is 5-1 in Houston Rockets's games vs teams below .500
- Houston Rockets is 1-4 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Houston Rockets is 4-11 ATS with 2+ days rest
- Houston Rockets is 3-9 ATS vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head:
- Washington Wizards is 0-6 straight up vs Houston Rockets
- Washington Wizards is 0-3 straight up at home vs Houston Rockets
- Washington Wizards is 0-3 straight up on the road vs Houston Rockets
Matchup Edges
Wizards
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +222.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -5.8 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 4-9 (2-3) (31% win rate)
- Defense allows 115.8 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- On a 6-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 33% win rate at this venue
Rockets
Advantages
- Strong 10-3 (7-1) record (77% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 116.2 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 107.4 PPG
- On a 3-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Common Opponent Performance contributes -39.75 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home
- Averaging 107.4 PPG allowed on defense