New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Raptors are missing three key players, with center Nate Bittle, forward Scottie Barnes and forward Kawhi Leonard all listed as out. Those absences strip Toronto of interior presence, versatile wing defense and veteran scoring, leaving a roster that will struggle to match up against a healthy New York squad.
Toronto’s shooting profile shows a modest edge from the field but a shortfall beyond the arc. The Raptors are hitting 45.43 % from the field compared with the Knicks’ 43.58 %, yet their three‑point conversion sits at 32.87 % versus New York’s 36.105 %. The disparity on long range could widen the scoring gap, especially with Toronto’s big men sidelined.
The Raptors’ recent ATS record underscores broader woes. They are 5‑16 straight up on a three‑plus‑game losing streak, posting a win percentage of .238 over the last 21 contests. Such a slump suggests difficulty both covering spreads and securing victories, reinforcing the challenges highlighted by the injury and shooting metrics.
There is no line that presents a clear edge; the recommendation is a pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY New York Knicks | -185 | -4.5 | O 217.5 |
| TOR Toronto Raptors | +155 | +4.5 | U 217.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY New York Knicks | -146 | -5.7 | O 224 |
| TOR Toronto Raptors | +146 | +5.7 | U 224 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +5.7
Injury-adjusted total: 224
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+217.50): This factor contributes +217.50 to the projection, favoring Raptors.
- Combined Tempo (+110.12): This factor contributes +110.12 to the projection, favoring Raptors.
- Pace Mismatch (+13.67): A 13.67-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Raptors's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (+9.17): The defensive scoring differential (9.17 PPG) favors Raptors, who allows fewer points per game.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Raptors Trends:
- Toronto Raptors is 5-1 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Toronto Raptors is 9-3 ATS at home after a loss
- Toronto Raptors is 8-3 ATS at home as a favorite
- Toronto Raptors is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games
- Toronto Raptors is 5-16 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Knicks Trends:
- The over is 2-9 in New York Knicks's games on the road as an underdog
- The over is 1-9 in New York Knicks's games vs teams below .500
- The over is 2-9 in New York Knicks's games underdog
- The over is 2-8 in New York Knicks's games with 3+ days rest
- The over is 4-13 in New York Knicks's games on the road after a win
Head-to-Head:
- Toronto Raptors is 0-6 straight up at home vs New York Knicks
- Toronto Raptors is 0-10 straight up vs New York Knicks
- Toronto Raptors is 0-4 straight up on the road vs New York Knicks
Matchup Edges
Raptors
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +217.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of +1.4 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 5-7 (2-3) (42% win rate)
- On a 3-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Model win probability of only 41% despite home advantage
Knicks
Advantages
- Stout defense allowing just 103.7 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -4.67 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +6.1 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Facing a home offense (114.2 PPG) that exceeds road defense (103.7 PPG) by 10.6