Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story heading into Philadelphia is the loss of three key 76ers pieces – center Joel Embiid, forward Dominick Barlow and backup center Adem Bona are all out, leaving the home club without any of its listed injuries.
Even with those absences, the Sixers have been nearly unstoppable when favored at home, posting an 11‑1 straight‑up record on the floor of Xfinity Mobile Arena. That translates to a win‑percentage of 0.917 over a sample of 12 games, underscoring a dominant home‑court advantage that rarely falters.
On the offensive glass, the Pacers actually edge the Sixers in shooting efficiency. Philadelphia’s three‑point clip sits at 34.318 % compared with Indiana’s 33.333 %, while the visitors outshoot the hosts from the field at 46.543 % versus 44.978 %. The modest gap in long‑range accuracy is outweighed by the Pacers’ higher overall field‑goal rate.
Given the injury depletion, the strong home‑favorite trend, and the modest shooting differentials, the market line of –6.5 offers no clear edge. No pick is offered; the line is passed.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | +221 | +6.5 | O 224.5 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -270 | -6.5 | U 224.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | +382 | +8.3 | O 222.3 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -382 | -8.3 | U 222.3 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -8.3
Injury-adjusted total: 222.3
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+224.50): This factor contributes +224.50 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
- Combined Tempo (+111.23): This factor contributes +111.23 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
- Common Opponent Performance (+11.25): When playing common opponents, 76ers outperformed by a 11.25-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+3.93): This factor contributes +3.93 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
76ers Trends:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 11-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Philadelphia 76ers is 11-1 straight up favorite
- The over is 1-4 in Philadelphia 76ers's games at home on a back-to-back
- The over is 1-4 in Philadelphia 76ers's games on a back-to-back
- Philadelphia 76ers is 8-4 ATS at home as a favorite
Pacers Trends:
- The over is 5-0 in Indiana Pacers's games with 3+ days rest
- The over is 11-3 in Indiana Pacers's games on the road as an underdog
- Indiana Pacers is 3-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Indiana Pacers is 4-12 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- The over is 5-1 in Indiana Pacers's games double-digit underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 3-1 straight up on the road vs Indiana Pacers
Matchup Edges
76ers
Advantages
- Strong 10-3 (5-2) overall record (77% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +224.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Allowing 109.4 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 21% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 110.3 PPG creates variance risk
Pacers
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -3.85 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -2.1 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 21%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 5-8 (2-4) record (38% win rate)
- Model win probability of just 21% on the road