Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market has set the spread at 8.5 points for the 76ers, yet the model predicts only a 1.4‑point advantage for Philadelphia, creating a 9.9‑point edge that favors the Raptors.
The spread line of 8.5 for the home side clashes sharply with the model’s projection of a –1.4 margin, and the signal assigns a “play” strength to taking the away team, Toronto, against the spread. This discrepancy alone supplies a sizable edge that the model quantifies at 9.9 points.
Adding to the intrigue, Toronto enters the game 0‑14 straight up on the road as an underdog, a straight‑up record that has never produced a win in that context. The sample of 14 road outings underscores a pattern of failure when the Raptors are expected to cover as the visiting underdog.
Compounding the 76ers’ woes, three front‑court players are sidelined: centers Adem Bona and Ariel Hukporti plus forward Dominick Barlow. With three big men out, Philadelphia’s interior depth is markedly reduced, while Toronto fields a full roster.
Pick: Raptors +8.5 (play). The market offers the Raptors an 8.5‑point cushion, while the model’s –1.4 projection for the 76ers hands the visitors a clear edge.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Raptors | +286 | +8.5 | O 221.5 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -359 | -8.5 | U 221.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Raptors | +111 | -1.4 | O 224.6 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -111 | +1.4 | U 224.6 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +1.4
Injury-adjusted total: 224.6
Our Picks
Play to -0.5
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+221.50): This factor contributes +221.50 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
- Combined Tempo (+111.42): This factor contributes +111.42 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
- Common Opponent Performance (-16.83): When playing common opponents, Raptors outperformed by a 16.83-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- Pace Mismatch (-7.03): A 7.03-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Raptors's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
76ers Trends:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 10-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Philadelphia 76ers is 10-1 straight up favorite
- The over is 1-7 in Philadelphia 76ers's games vs teams below .500
- The over is 1-4 in Philadelphia 76ers's games at home on a back-to-back
- The over is 1-4 in Philadelphia 76ers's games on a back-to-back
Raptors Trends:
- Toronto Raptors is 0-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Toronto Raptors is 2-12 ATS on the road as an underdog
- Toronto Raptors is 0-14 straight up underdog
- Toronto Raptors is 4-17 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Toronto Raptors is 2-12 ATS underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 1-3 straight up at home vs Toronto Raptors
- Philadelphia 76ers is 3-6 straight up vs Toronto Raptors
Matchup Edges
76ers
Advantages
- Strong 9-3 (4-2) overall record (75% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +221.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 114.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (109.2 PPG) by 5.3
- Model sees 9.9-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 109.2 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Raptors
Advantages
- Common Opponent Performance contributes -16.83 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +2.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 47%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 5-6 (2-3) record (45% win rate)
- Model win probability of just 47% on the road