Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Injuries dominate the narrative, with Minnesota missing both Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo while Dallas is without center Dereck Lively II, leaving the Timberwolves two starters out and the Mavericks one. Those absences shape lineups and depth, and the home team’s two‑player loss is offset by a single vacancy for the visitors.
Conference play has been brutal for Dallas, as the Mavericks sit 3‑15 straight up in those games, a win percentage of .167 across an 18‑game sample. That stark record underscores a broader struggle to cover, making the spread a critical factor in evaluating their chances against a hostile Minnesota crowd.
From a shooting perspective, the Timberwolves are slightly sharper beyond the arc at 37.296 % compared with Dallas’ 34.43 %, while overall field‑goal efficiency is nearly identical—Minnesota at 47.353 % and the Mavericks at 47.777 %. The modest three‑point edge pairs with the home‑court advantage to bolster the Bears’ scoring potential.
The model projects a -7.5 spread for Minnesota, yet the market offers -5.5. With a home win probability of .765 and a spread edge of -2.0, the Timberwolves -5.5 is a clear play. Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 (play).
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | +184 | +5.5 | O 227.5 |
| MIN Minnesota Timberwolves | -222 | -5.5 | U 227.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | +326 | +7.5 | O 233 |
| MIN Minnesota Timberwolves | -326 | -7.5 | U 233 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -7.5
Injury-adjusted total: 233
Our Picks
Play to -8.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+227.50): This factor contributes +227.50 to the projection, favoring Timberwolves.
- Combined Tempo (+112.57): This factor contributes +112.57 to the projection, favoring Timberwolves.
- Common Opponent Performance (+9.75): When playing common opponents, Timberwolves outperformed by a 9.75-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+6.52): This factor contributes +6.52 to the projection, favoring Timberwolves.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Timberwolves Trends:
- Minnesota Timberwolves is 10-2 straight up at home as a favorite
- Minnesota Timberwolves is 6-1 ATS vs teams above .500
- Minnesota Timberwolves is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
- Minnesota Timberwolves is 10-2 straight up favorite
- The over is 2-10 in Minnesota Timberwolves's games after a win
Mavericks Trends:
- Dallas Mavericks is 3-15 straight up in conference games
- The over is 3-12 in Dallas Mavericks's games after a loss
- The over is 1-7 in Dallas Mavericks's games on a 3+ game losing streak
- The over is 4-12 in Dallas Mavericks's games on the road as an underdog
- Dallas Mavericks is 4-12 straight up on the road as an underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Minnesota Timberwolves is 4-0 straight up on the road vs Dallas Mavericks
- Minnesota Timberwolves is 6-1 straight up vs Dallas Mavericks
- Minnesota Timberwolves is 2-1 straight up at home vs Dallas Mavericks
Matchup Edges
Timberwolves
Advantages
- Strong 8-3 (4-1) overall record (73% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 118.1 PPG
- Riding a 4-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 114.9 PPG offense exceeds home defense (107.0 PPG) by 7.9
- Allowing 107.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 23% model win probability
Mavericks
Advantages
- Strong 7-4 (5-2) record (64% win rate) this season
- On a 3-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -3.27 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (118.1 PPG) that exceeds road defense (110.3 PPG) by 7.8
- Model win probability of just 23% on the road