Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The Suns' superior shooting efficiency dominates the outlook. Phoenix posts a three‑point clip of 37.637 percent versus Charlotte’s 30.754, and its field‑goal conversion sits at 47.219 percent compared with the Hornets’ 40.042. The gap in scoring potency gives the home side a clear edge in a matchup where every bucket matters.
Injury concerns tilt the balance further. The Suns are missing a single player, center Mark Williams, while the Hornets are without two forwards, Grant Williams and Brandon Miller. With a home‑out count of 1 and an away‑out count of 2, Phoenix retains more of its core, limiting the Hornets’ depth and rebounding options.
The Hornets’ recent form adds a stark warning. Charlotte is 3‑19 straight up, riding a three‑game losing streak and posting a win percentage of 0.136 over the last 22 games. Such a dismal record underscores the difficulty of finding any value on the road.
Given the data, there is no viable line to take in this game; the situation is a pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | +201 | +6.5 | O 213.5 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | -244 | -6.5 | U 213.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | +219 | +7 | O 211.6 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | -219 | -7 | U 211.6 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -7
Injury-adjusted total: 211.6
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+213.50): This factor contributes +213.50 to the projection, favoring Suns.
- Combined Tempo (+110.02): This factor contributes +110.02 to the projection, favoring Suns.
- Pace Mismatch (+21.72): A 21.72-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Suns's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+13.98): Suns's per-game scoring advantage (13.98 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Suns Trends:
- Phoenix Suns is 30-13 straight up vs teams below .500
- Phoenix Suns is 6-2 straight up at home as a favorite
- Phoenix Suns is 14-6 straight up in conference games
- Phoenix Suns is 3-6 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Phoenix Suns is 6-2 straight up favorite
Hornets Trends:
- Charlotte Hornets is 3-19 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Charlotte Hornets is 8-20 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Charlotte Hornets is 1-4 ATS after a loss
- Charlotte Hornets is 15-38 straight up vs teams above .500
- Charlotte Hornets is 25-54 straight up with 2+ days rest
Head-to-Head:
- Phoenix Suns is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Charlotte Hornets
Matchup Edges
Suns
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +213.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -5.3 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 4-6 (4-3) (40% win rate)
- Defense allows 118.1 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Negative scoring margin of -5.3 PPG per game
Hornets
Advantages
- Rest Advantage contributes -1.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -11.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 31%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 4-7 (3-4) record (36% win rate)
- Anemic offense at just 98.8 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 17.7 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home