San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls
Thursday, November 12, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile defines the pivotal storyline heading into Chicago. The Bulls are shooting 27.177 % from beyond the arc while the Spurs sit at 34.615 %, and overall field‑goal efficiency mirrors that split with Chicago at 42.402 % and San Antonio at 46.162 %. The disparity in perimeter and interior accuracy suggests the Spurs possess a clear advantage in raw scoring tools.
The market line sits at 15.5 points for the home side, yet the model values the spread at 8.1. That creates a spread edge of –7.4 in favor of the Bulls, aligning with the “play” strength tag. With the spread market markedly inflated relative to the model projection, the Bulls appear undervalued at the offered line.
Scoring margins underscore the mismatch: Chicago averages 112.667 points while surrendering 129.333, a –16.667 margin, whereas the Spurs post 118.727 points and allow only 107.0, yielding an 11.727 margin. The gap between the two teams stands at –28.394, reinforcing the Spurs’ superior offensive and defensive balance.
Pick: Bulls +15.5 play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -1200 | -15.5 | O 238.5 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +750 | +15.5 | U 238.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -119 | -8.1 | O 231.4 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +119 | +8.1 | U 231.4 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +8.1
Injury-adjusted total: 231.4
Our Picks
Play to +7.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+238.50): This factor contributes +238.50 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- Combined Tempo (+116.93): This factor contributes +116.93 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-28.96): This factor contributes -28.96 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-28.39): Spurs's scoring margin advantage of 28.39 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Bulls Trends:
- Chicago Bulls is 5-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Chicago Bulls is 6-0 ATS vs teams above .500
- Chicago Bulls is 4-16 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Chicago Bulls is 1-6 ATS vs teams below .500
- Chicago Bulls is 2-8 straight up underdog
Spurs Trends:
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-0 ATS on the road on a back-to-back
- San Antonio Spurs is 17-3 straight up favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 7-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-0 ATS on a back-to-back
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Bulls
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +238.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -16.7 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-8 (0-3) (11% win rate)
- Defense allows 129.3 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- On a 6-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Spurs
Advantages
- Strong 9-2 (4-2) record (82% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 118.7 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 107.0 PPG
- On a 8-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Road win rate of 100% -- proven road warriors
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (112.7 PPG) that exceeds road defense (107.0 PPG) by 5.7
- Averaging 107.0 PPG allowed on defense