Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, November 12, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in this Pelicans‑Nets clash is the contrasting shooting profile. New Orleans posts a field‑goal percentage of 47.539 and a three‑point rate of 32.468, while Brooklyn lags at 42.994 from the field and 34.414 from beyond the arc. The Pelicans’ higher overall efficiency suggests they can outscore the Nets even though the visitors marginally edge them from deep.
Injury news adds another layer. The Pelicans are missing two starters—forward Trendon Watford and center Yves Missi—both listed as out, while the Nets are without guard Egor Demin. Home out count sits at 2 and away out count at 1, leaving the Pelicans shorthanded in the frontcourt but still retaining a more complete rotation than Brooklyn.
The Nets’ recent ATS history offers a bleak backdrop. After a loss to a winning opponent, Brooklyn sits 6‑34 straight‑up, a win percentage of .15 across a sample of 40 games. Such a dismal record underscores the difficulty the visiting club has in rebounding from defeats against stronger teams.
Given the pass strength, there is no line to take on this matchup.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN Brooklyn Nets | +156 | +4.5 | O 229.5 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -186 | -4.5 | U 229.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN Brooklyn Nets | +224 | +6.3 | O 224.2 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -224 | -6.3 | U 224.2 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -6.3
Injury-adjusted total: 224.2
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+229.50): This factor contributes +229.50 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Combined Tempo (+115.55): This factor contributes +115.55 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Pace Mismatch (+17.42): A 17.42-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pelicans's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Common Opponent Performance (+15.75): When playing common opponents, Pelicans outperformed by a 15.75-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-0 ATS at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-0 straight up at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-0 ATS favorite
- The over is 0-7 in New Orleans Pelicans's games vs teams above .500
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-0 straight up favorite
Nets Trends:
- Brooklyn Nets is 6-34 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Brooklyn Nets is 2-16 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Brooklyn Nets is 2-16 straight up underdog
- Brooklyn Nets is 1-12 straight up double-digit underdog
- Brooklyn Nets is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
Head-to-Head:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Brooklyn Nets
Matchup Edges
Pelicans
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 117.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +229.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 4-7 (3-3) (36% win rate)
- Defense allows 122.4 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- On a 3-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Nets
Advantages
- Home Streak contributes -3.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -9.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 31%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 2-8 (1-3) record (20% win rate)
- Defense allows 115.7 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 17.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 17% away from home