Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks
Thursday, November 12, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Injuries dominate the narrative, with the Knicks missing guard Josh Hart while the Cavaliers sit two backcourt pieces—Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson—on the sidelines, leaving the home club with one out and the visitors with two. The loss of Hart trims New York’s playmaking depth, but Cleveland’s double‑guard depletion could blunt its offensive flow, especially in transition.
The Knicks have been a fortress when favored at Madison Square Garden, posting an 18‑4 straight‑up record as a home favorite. That translates to an .818 win percentage over a 22‑game sample, underscoring a pronounced ability to cover spreads on their own floor and to convert home‑court advantage into decisive victories.
Shooting metrics tilt modestly toward Cleveland: the Cavaliers are hitting 36.681 % from three‑point range versus New York’s 36.275 %, and they post a superior field‑goal percentage at 46.381 % compared with the Knicks’ 43.113 %. The marginal edge in efficiency suggests the visitors can generate enough clean looks to keep the game within reach despite the injury hit.
Play the Cavaliers +4.5.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers | +151 | +4.5 | O 221.5 |
| NY New York Knicks | -180 | -4.5 | U 221.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers | +166 | +1 | O 227.1 |
| NY New York Knicks | -166 | -1 | U 227.1 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -1
Injury-adjusted total: 227.1
Our Picks
Play to +1.9
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+221.50): This factor contributes +221.50 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Combined Tempo (+111.11): This factor contributes +111.11 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Pace Mismatch (-18.65): A 18.65-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Cavaliers's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (-12.70): The defensive scoring differential (12.70 PPG) favors Cavaliers, who allows fewer points per game.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Knicks Trends:
- New York Knicks is 18-4 straight up at home as a favorite
- The over is 0-5 in New York Knicks's games at home after a loss
- New York Knicks is 8-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- New York Knicks is 18-4 straight up favorite
- The over is 0-5 in New York Knicks's games after a loss
Cavaliers Trends:
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 3-15 ATS in non-conference games
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 2-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 0-5 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 6-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 2-10 straight up underdog
Head-to-Head:
- New York Knicks is 5-1 ATS vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- New York Knicks is 4-1 straight up at home vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- New York Knicks is 3-1 ATS on the road vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Matchup Edges
Knicks
Advantages
- Strong 6-4 (4-2) overall record (60% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Riding a 4-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Elite defense allowing just 102.3 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +221.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 116.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (102.3 PPG) by 14.2
- Model sees 3.5-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 102.3 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Cavaliers
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 116.5 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -18.65 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +1.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 5-6 (4-2) record (45% win rate)
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home